Upon participating in the presidential elections Belarusan opposition will only help the regime and further the illusion of the existing choice and minimal democracy in our country.

Such an opinion shared Uladzimir Matskevich, the Head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”. According to his estimations, stagnation in Belarus complies with the official ideology, Belarusan opposition lacks intellect, and current quiet social and political summertime in Belarus is pretty routine and there is hardly any sense to expect that the situation will completely change: “Standstill is connected not only with the politicians, who delay their electoral campaigns, but with the fact that the number of Belarusans, who are interested in elections, is greatly reduced. There are very few such people, as after elections of 2010 and 2012 people received added evidence that our country can’t hold elections under the regime. That is why nobody stakes on that.”

“Few people are interested in elections now”

“Recently we acted on the premise that there are no elections, though their announcement makes the regime really weak, and we should make an advantage of it,” Uladzimir Matskevich notes: “However, today we understand that with the overall feeling of apathy we can’t use even that. That is why few people are interested in elections now. Only three most stubborn politicians who think differently remain — Alaksandr Milinkevich, Uladzimir Niakliaeu, Alaksej Janukevich, as well as Viktar Karneyenka and Siarhei Kaliakin. But these are the politicians, who lost their support and basically stay in vacuum, still clinging to the idea of elections.”

The majority of people, including those who almost have nothing to do with politics, are well aware that the elections can hardly be predisposed to change the regime, Uladzimir Matskevich believes: “It means that the change of the regime can happen not through election technologies, but rather through the deep economic crisis or extremely unfavorable foreign-political and foreign-economic situation.”

The forthcoming local council election campaign will be of no importance either. Uladzimir Matskevich sees no preconditions for some social and political revival in autumn: “Even if the predictable devaluation happens, it won’t lead to the inner political crisis. For now I see no factors which could lead the country to some crucial point.”

“Some people only make the situation worse”

Today absolutely different forecasts and expectations are voiced in the information field, especially in the virtual space: some rather predictably are waiting for the economic crisis, some hope for either Kremlin or Brussels, some have high expectations about the forthcoming Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, some are hoping for the “People’s referendum”, and some discuss the mystical figure of Belarusan Navalny in all seriousness. What can come up to the expectations among all the above mentioned?

“We can enumerate much more factors, such as weather conditions and harvest prospects. But any of these factors and even their aggregate doesn’t drag Belarus, our society and economy out of crisis. A lot of factors have to cross before we can say that the crisis can become the turning point. For now neither the Summit, nor the pressure from Kremlin, Brussels or Washington, nor the appearance of some charismatic Belarusan Navalny have no power to change the situation.”

Uladzimir Matskevich is still convinced that “we have long ago lost the elections of 2015. Moreover, lately some notable figures in the opposition only worsen the situation.”