On the eve of Paval Sieviaryniets’ discharge the representatives of Belarusan civil society and political opposition are discussing the potential change in the country’s social and political climate.

Paval Sieviaryniets is to be released on October 19. On this day finishes his three-year term for participation in “mass disorder” after the elections in December 2010.

“Of course, it is good news that Paval Sieviaryniets is going to be released and there will be fewer political prisoners in the country. But we shouldn’t perceive it as a change in overall situation with the political prisoners in Belarus,” noted Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”.

Earlier he has already commented on this subject and emphasized that state that “political prisoners in our country are part of the well thought-out and consistent policy of the regime. Belarusan regime uses political prisoners to put pressure on the opposition, civil society and the EU. And Lukashenko uses the map of political prisoners in his own interests”. “By example of political prisoners the regime demonstrates that anybody could be in the same situation the political prisoners are now and that the seriousness of repressions often depends on the political will of the authorities,” Uladzimir Matskevich said then.

“We should understand that Paval Sieviaryniets has almost served his term to the end,” notes Uladzimir Matskevich: “And his release can’t be perceived to be certain success. Of course, we can expect the activation of one of the coalitions after he is free, as Paval Sieviaryniets has certain authority, and not only among youth. He can be called an established authority; and Belarusian Christian Democrats will be renovated after he comes back. However, our expectations won’t necessarily be fulfilled. It all depends on how Paval Sieviaryniets gets his freedom and whether he will manage to regain his former stance.”

Let us recall that recently, on August 28, Zmicier Dashkevich, who was the Chairman of “Young Front” youth organization then, was another political prisoner to be released from prison. However, even taking into account the forthcoming release of Paval Sieviaryniets, we can’t find any improvement in the political atmosphere ruling in the country, Uladzimir Matskevich is sure: “Both Dashkevich and Sieviarynietshave served their full terms. It means that we should be happy about their soon appearance at large; however, we shouldn’t cherish any illusions that this will somehow change the stance of Belarusan political prisoners and political regime in the country.”

With all the trends and events happening today, are there any preconditions that in the foreseeable future other political prisoners can be released? “We can’t exclude such a possibility,” Uladzimir Matskevich believes: “And I can hope for that, though I see no preconditions for it now. Moreover, the regime has only wanted to be sure that all the attempts implemented by Europe, opposition and civil society to put pressure and bargain about political prisoners turned out to be ineffective. I.e. the regime is not going to make concessions, and it has stopped taking into consideration threats and sanctions imposed for show. For now I see no possibilities to improve situation in this respect.”

We expect that the colleagues and friends of Paval Sieviaryniets are going to meet him at 10 a.m. on Saturday, October 19, near the security check-point in Kuplin village, Pruzhanski region, where the politician is serving his term.