The working futurist told which technologies conquer the world and what should we do about it.

Yet another public lecture organized by the Flying University and the Center for European Transformation in Minsk gave a specialist in the sphere of technologies Vladimir Bataev.

The future is already here

Vladimir Bataev is the head of the department of “smart city solutions” in EsperantoXL — the Dutch system integrator and developer of smart solutions in the field of transport and logistics, as well as in other segments of the smart city. He has worked with municipalities, architectural firms, and organizations involved in urban planning, as well as with innovative clusters in Finland, Malaysia, Netherlands, UAE and the UK. His attention is focused on identifying specific local urban challenges that can be solved quickly with the help of smart urban solutions as well as on the creation of clear channels of communication for citizens to help ensure that their quality of life improves.

Vladimir Bataev dedicated his speech, attended by the EuroBelarus Information Service, to a new reference point and promising scenarios for future development.

“I don’t know the future and cannot foresee it,” the speaker said. “But the best way to predict the future is to create it yourself; and that is exactly the case.”

“Technologies get into our lives, become invisible, but they are forming the future. For example, electric cars: they didn’t exist before, whereas now they can be found on the streets of any European city.”

According to Moore's Law (the economic model introduced by the founder of Intel, Gordon E. Moore in 1965) every 1.5 years the number of transistors on one microprocessor will double. However, the technological process has so accelerated that over the last 5 — 10 years it became clear: Moore's Law doesn’t work. Thus, it can be taken as a reference point, when the ability to predict ends and new options of the future’s development open up.

What will happen after Moore's Law?

Vladimir Bataev sees three scenarios, according to which the world can develop further. The first is related to quantum computers: the way of calculating will change fundamentally. The second variant — we will have to stimulate the brain, which needs little power inputs to make calculations. And the third way is to employ increasingly more communications in order to develop in the direction of what is called the “Internet of things”.

Vladimir Bataev decided to tell about the latter two scenarios in greater detail. In terms of brain function, he singled out areas of artificial intelligence and robots, but in terms of the environment — is the Internet of things, the circular economy and the smart city of the Criminal Code which all converge at one point.

Machines beat humans

The history of the relationship between a man and a computer is the history of defeats that are only increasing. The first such story took place in 1996 — 1997, when the famous chess player Garry Kasparov played chess with Deep Blue robot, winning the first match and losing the second.

This year in Seoul a historic event happened: the world's best player Lee Sedol was defeated by AlphaGo — a program, which doesn’t know the rules, learns how to play while observing the game. As a result of the program was awarded the honorary title, thus establishing the triumph of computers over people....

Machines will soon beat people not only in logical combinations, but in art, too. For example, there exist neural networks — computer programs that model the work of the brain — that can single out outline drawings. Thus, we get real paintings and that is already art to some extent.

Another example: a few months ago a twitterbot was created. At first it didn’t know anything, but twitter users started talking with it, and as a result the bot started learning. Within a few days it turned into a racist and had to be turned off.

A reasonable question arises: how should we deal with artificial intelligence and what should we do to control it? Some experts believe that open data and collaborative work on robots is the only way to withstand this danger.

When will people become immortal?

Futurist and inventor Ray Kurzweil believes that already in 2045 we wouldn’t be able to stop progress. The division between a man and a machine will disappear, but before that people will become immortal...

“On the one hand, it is an absolutely radical idea; but if you divide it on certain events that take place, it stops looking so radical,” Vladimir Bataev said.

For example, no one is surprising by the instruments that help to measure some parameters of the human body: blood pressure, heart rate, number of consumed and spent calories... But some people have gone even further. For example, Neil Harrison, who cannot distinguish colors, has implanted an antenna into his brain, and it helps him to hear the colors.

Speaking of the Internet of Things, Vladimir Bataev notes that it is used in numerous spheres, such as, for example, in agriculture: special traps collect potato beetles, cameras count them, sensor responds to movement and calculates the number of bugs, so that people know where and what substances should be sprayed on crops.

Technology won’t create life

Urbanization and connection to the Internet leads to the change of cities change and force to create smart cities with more efficient energy consumption, transport, and manufacturing... But they mostly occur from a desire to solve a specific problem. For example, Rio de Janeiro wanted to solve the problem of flooding. In result, a city control center where everything is monitored was built: parking, lighting, connection between objects in case of emergency, etc. Such “flights control centers” are appearing in more and more cities; not so long ago one was built in Dubai.

There are two approaches in creation of smart cities. First is adaptation of existing cities (Barcelona, ​​Amsterdam, Helsinki) and creation of special user-friendly applications, such as, for example, an application for sharing bicycles or for the trash bins to “tell” about their contents.

The second approach is the construction of cities “from scratch”, where even harmful emissions into the air and the amount of energy consumed are controlled (such settlements exist near Abu Dhabi and South Korea, though, to tell the truth, people don’t rush them to settle in.).

However, not all approve of the tendency of creating smart cities. Planners and architects believe that talks about smart cities are based on a feeling of inevitable death — that the number of people is increasing, and the number of resources is decreasing. With such approach cities become very similar to each other; they become “sterile”. And this is perhaps the most powerful argument: no matter how advanced the technologies are now they are still unable to create life and vitality in the city. In addition, it’s unclear which city is more stable — a smart one, where the entire system can be switched off with a single impulse; or some Marrakech, where life will go the same way as a thousand years ago even if all electricity is switched off by an impulse.

“Technologies will save the world, if they won’t ruin it earlier,” summed up Vladimir Bataev.

Video lecture (in Russian):