Referendum in Crimea cannot be called legitimate: its results will be void.

Russia wants to see Ukraine disintegrated at all costs. The actions of the Russian army are meant to weaken Ukraine, so that it falls apart for Russia to “take care” of what is left from Ukraine.

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service analyses recent Ukrainian events.

— Russia is stubbornly occupying Crimea; Ukrainian authorities led their troops to Crimea after the week of blockage. What is the possible result of the conflict between the “aliens” and Ukrainian army?

— On the one hand, after many years of corrupted oligarchical power the fighting capacity of the Ukrainian army is weakened. And that disables the army to meet the challenge set by the Russian aggression in Crimea.

Considering the operation which was being prepared by the Russian army, Ukrainian army got caught in the uncomfortable position. However, Ukrainian army acted as correct as possible and ignored the provocations of the gunmen.

Thus, a paradox emerged: strange armed groups are taking action in Ukraine, and all the countries in the world, including Russia, are refusing to have anything to do with them. Basically, these soldiers are gangsters, or illegal military bands.

Ukrainians are preparing forces comparable to the forces of the aggressors at the Crimean territory. And absolutely illegal gangs are to be destroyed. The rationalism and pragmatism of the Ukrainian authorities and Ukrainian armed forces command in particular lies in their desire to avoid blood, especially when it comes to the civilian population and Ukrainian soldiers. That is the reason why Ukrainian army is acting circumspectly and is drawing up forces in order to conduct their operation without shedding blood.

However, the fact that armed bands left the territory of Crimea means that this region is not the limit. But Ukrainian army is free to do anything with the armed bands.

The other question is whether the destruction of the illegal armed bands will serve as a casus belli? According to Putin, it is not the Russian army that is acting in Ukraine, but the gangsters. Ukraine will carry out an antiterrorist operation in order to destroy gang bands; and according to the standards of international law, it is the country's internal affairs.

If Russia considers this antiterrorist operation to be the military actions against the Russian Federation, it will mean that the war is declared post factum. Russia will admit that it was deceiving the international community for the whole week.

This is the paradox of the situation in Crimea, which has to be resolved sooner or later.

— Since the Crimean intervention the EU, US and Ukraine urge Kremlin to start negotiations, while Russia is gradually assimilating Crimea. A number of analysts believe that Washington has basically waived the annexation of Crimea; in return Ukraine becomes the member of the EU without entering NATO. Is this scenario possible?

— It is the emotional assessment of people who know nothing of the international politics. Neither the US, nor the Great Britain can waive Crimea’s annexation; otherwise they’ll denounce their responsibilities to guarantee the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, thus undermining the trust to any agreements and responsibilities they have. By this they’ll lose the status of the world leaders.

— The formula for stop of the war in Crimea is easy: to freeze the western assets of Russian oligarchs, and let them overthrow Putin. Why the US and Germany cannot do that?

— It is labor-consuming and judicially difficult to freeze the assets and accounts; first of all, political consent is required, and after that comes the most pains-taking part of work. Financial cobwebs are hard to be sorted out in the short term; and our situation required extraordinary solutions.

— It looks like Russia and half-legal Crimean authorities will still hold referendum on March 16. Will Crimea be included in Russia if they manage to do it? Or it will become yet another Abkhazia and South Ossetia?

— Crimea is not entering Russia. This referendum is illegitimate, and its results will be void.

Even if the referendum is organized in full accordance with the law, the fact that it is held at gunpoint means its results cannot be recognized.

— Why is it necessary then?

— The only rational explanation to the actions of Russia in Ukraine is the weakening of the Ukrainian statehood, destruction of Ukrainian economy, undermining of the foundations of the Ukrainian society.

Russia relies on the Western thought about the artificial nature of Ukraine; but all modern European states exist due to the principle established after the World War II, which states that borders are not to be violated and integrity of the territory is to be maintained. However, it doesn’t mean that the states cannot disintegrate: the right of nations to self-determination is to be preserved. Hypothetically, disintegration of Crimea is possible; but it is only possible due to the political processes inside Ukraine, not in result of military aggression of some other state.

Russia wants to see Ukraine disintegrated at all costs. The actions of the Russian army are meant to weaken Ukraine, so that it falls apart by itself for Russia to “take care” of what is left from Ukraine.

— They say thatthe appetite comes with eating. Analysts claim that Kremlin wants Kyiv, not Crimea, and Putin wants to substitute Yanukovych with his henchman. Is he capable to do that?

— I think that Russia is not capable of that. But it is capable of stirring up the World War III or the Cold War. Russian military intervention won’t lead to the annexation of Crimea, but rather will work as a detonator and will result either in the World War III, or the Cold War.

It has been already a week that the whole world is frozen in a step from the World War III.