What mechanisms of deterring Russian expansion do US and EU have, what are the chances to return Crimea to Ukraine and how effective can the sanctions against Putin’s friends be?

The journalist of the EuroBelarus Information Service talked about it with Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Centre for European Transformation.

— What mechanisms of influence on Russia do Europe and US have?

—There is quite large arsenal of means at their disposal: from diplomatic pressure to symbolic sanctions, which are already imposed, as well as the restricted target sanctions and economic measures. It is not necessarily should be sanctions; it can be actions aimed at reducing the price on oil on a global scale, the reduction of the flow of investment, and so on.

Political influence should also be taken into account: the policy of US and EU got weaker in countries-neighbours of Russia, but their bigger presence in the region will weaken Russian influence.

Besides, there is an arsenal of military and political influence on Russia: freezing the inflow of different technological goods for strengthening of military and strategic complexes at Russia’s borders, enforcement of military presence in Ukraine, direct supplies of weaponry to Ukraine and delivery of proper technologies to it.

— The economic sanctions against shared “Kremlin’s purse”, i.e. the Rossiya Bank, as well as against Putin’s friends — Yakunin, Fursenko and Kovalchuk. Are such measures as banning the use of accounts abroad and visa sanctions effective for restraining Russian aggression against Ukraine?

— I find these measures not so effective, as at this point of time Russian authorities were ready for them.

— Russia conducted the nationalization of elites. Thus, it turns out that they eliminated the instrument of foreign influence. Officially, they don’t have foreign accounts. Does it mean that the sanctions are imposed, but we can’t get anything out of them?

— I don’t know whether Russian officials have accounts abroad, but even if they have, there must have been an arrangement in case of sanctions, so they took care about their accounts.

— Sergei Lavrov, the head of Russian Foreign Ministry, stated that Russia is not afraid of sanctions. Can he be bluffing, from your point of view? As the next step Washington makes can be the imposition of sanctions against “Rosneft” and “Gazprom”, i.e. against 70 per cent of Russian export.

— Yes, in a sense he is bluffing when saying that Russia is ready to any sanctions. Whatever rhetorical statements Russian officials make, nothing will save Russian economy from the consequences.

— If sanctions are aggravated, and Putin’s friends will explain to him that their business is suffering and it is due time to stop the military aggression, how will the Russian President manage to disentangle and save his face?

— It is difficult for me to say; I think it is impossible. There are only some interim variants: for instance, renunciation of Crimea and consent for temporal staying of Crimean territory between Russia and Ukraine. But in this case yet another referendum can follow, for Crimea to decide for itself the member of which country it wants to be. This might be the variant with minimal losses for Putin.

It is, of course, important to know whether Ukrainian authorities are ready for such a scenario.

— Does it mean that you believe that Ukraine hasn’t lost Crimea once and forever? Elmar Brok, the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament, said it is gone irretrievably.

— We can’t say that Ukraine has lost Crimea irretrievably now, when the situation is still developing. Surely, Crimea is occupied by Russia now, but this process is not ended yet. Everything will depend on further actions of main actors at the world political scene.

— Obviously, Kremlin will be trying to disrupt presidential election in Ukraine; that is the reason why it keeps talking about the illegitimacy of Ukrainian authorities. Do western politicians take Lavrov’s calls for Ukraine’s federalization and new Constitution seriously?

— EU and US can’t agree to implement the decision suggested by Russia, as they are unacceptable and crazy in the current circumstances. What Russia suggests reminds of Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact signed in 1939. Realization of Russian strategy through Ukraine’s federalization can happen if Russia will continue with destabilization of situation in Ukraine’s regions and if it will further military expansion there.

And such possibility still exists; Russian army at borders with Ukraine, attempts of destabilization and ongoing arrests of subversive groups by Ukraine’s security service confirm that.

However, Russia will be able to intervene into Ukraine only when it is convinced of Europe’s resourcefulness to oppose it.