We shouldn’t underestimate the risk of Russian expansion to Belarus, especially when Belarusan patriots are losing in the information warfare.

On the threshold of the Victory Day that is celebrated on May 9 EuroBelarus Information Service talked with Uladzimir Matskevich, the philosopher and methodologist, about the rumors of the probable Russian march in Minsk, the closeness of Russia-Ukraine war and the abundance of Ribbon of Saint George, which are now symbolizing Russian occupation in Crimea.

— Equivocation has become the part of our life: we put the equality sign between the war of liberation of the Soviet people in 1941-1945, between Russian occupation of Crimea and aggression at the south-eastern Ukraine. The symbol of victory over the fascists — a Ribbon of Saint George — is now symbolizing the fratricidal war, which Russia is waging against Ukraine...

— Equivocation has always been underestimated. Symbols and meanings are conservative and can be preserved over generations. A Ribbon of Saint George used to symbolize the military fame in imperial Russia; that is why back in Soviet times it was re-introduced as the Order of Glory. After the Crimea it started symbolizing disgrace and meanness.

Other symbols and names need to be corrected, too. For example, a widespread word “separatists”. There are no separatists in Ukraine now; separatists struggle for the autonomy or independence of their territory or country, they protest under the national or party flags and use national or party symbols. Whereas the subversives and gunmen in Donbass and Luhansk region are protesting under the Russian flags and are fighting for the accession to Russia, i.e. they are not separatists; they are either traitors or collaborators. The idea of federalism has been instilled in them by means of Russian propaganda.

Now we don’t have the correct term to name the order that is reigning in Russia, but it looks very similar to fascism.

— Belarus is getting more and more involved in the whirl of Russia-Ukraine war. On May 7 Lukashenko was summoned to Moscow to take part in the meeting organized by Putin in Kremlin. They say that Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Russia are to discuss the situation in Ukraine. All these countries are members of CSTO. Does it mean that Putin can require the support of the possible aggression in Ukraine from those who attended the meeting?

— It can be so. But I don’t know how the “allies” of Russia will react to that, and I think Putin doesn’t know that either. So even if he demands that these countries support his aggression in Ukraine, he won’t insist, as he runs the risk of getting an undesirable answer. Annexation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia are still not recognized by Lukashenko, the closest Russia’s “ally”. And I think that Crimea won’t be officially recognized either.

— Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Buzhinsky, the former head of the department of international agreements in the Russian Defense Ministry. threatened that he will respond to the deployment of NATO armed forces in the Eastern Europe: “If NATO becomes more active, we will deploy a division of Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad Region”, even though he doesn’t see “any potential danger if a military conflict between NATO and Russia in Europe involving ground forces,” adding that “there is no military threat [to Russia], this is an information war”. What does it mean for Belarus?

— It doesn’t mean anything. When it comes to military and defence spheres, Belarusan regime has long ago lost independence t its own territory, which was the cost of certain economic preferences. So, if Putin decides to introduce Russian troops into Belarus in whatever number, he won’t ask Lukashenko’s permission for that.

— In such a geopolitical situation it seems that the desire of Belarus to preserve independence seems truly idiotic...

— But why? The regime makes humble attempts to preserve independence, and even succeeds at some point. But if Putin takes Belarus in hand, Lukashenko won’t stand a chance. Only national patriotic power can withstand Russian expansion; the power that is free from corruption and relies on people. And it is not Lukashenko’s regime, which is only preserved thanks to Kremlin’s help.