If the EU accepts the terms of the Belarusan regime regarding “depoliticization of relations” it will marginalize its main allies inside the country: civil society and political opposition.

Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius paid a visit to Minsk a day after Belarusan Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei visited Brussels. Such step arose rumors about another “European thaw” brought by Lithuanian minister.

Is it really so?

EuroBelarus Information Service asked Andrei Yahorau, the head of the Centre for European Transformation several question about it.

— On July 24-25 Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius visited Minsk, though until Vladimir Makei’s visit to Brussels the meeting of the Foreign Ministers-members of the Eastern Partnership wasn’t even discussed. Does it mean that Brussels gave Lithuania a mandate to negotiations with the official Minsk?

— No. EU foreign policy is somewhat independent: Brussels cannot give permission for such visits.

But such actions are coordinated between the countries-members of the EU: if such coordination didn’t take place, Linkevičius’svisit to Minsk would be impossible.

Generally, over the last six months EU-Minsk relations are gradually thawing.

— The two parties didn’t make progress towards resolving important problems, such as the building of Astraviec Nuclear Power Plant, establishing visa centers in regional towns, and small border traffic, which means that the visit had some other goal. Which one?

— Where did you get the information about no progress with the above-mentioned problems?

There is a broad plan of economic relations, a common transit and transport system. Belarus is interested in oil terminals in Klaipėda and transfers through Klaipėda port; and Lithuania shares these interests. There is a wide range of issues to be discussed between the foreign ministers of the two countries.

Personally, I have no doubt that the announced problems are central during Linas Linkevičius’svisit.

His visit fits in the logic of “small steps” towards improvement of relations between the countries. That is why shuttle diplomacy will only be unwrapping, all the more that Belarusan authorities only maintain pragmatic relations with Lithuania and Latvia.

— Linas Linkevičius’s visit can be viewed as an attempt to unfreeze Belarus-EU relations. How plausible is this version, especially if we know that six political prisoners are still in prison?

— His visit is not an emergency visit by means of which the EU is trying to remove “Belarus question” from the agenda. The EU is basically agreeing on the terms of the Belarusan authorities, despite no changes are happening within Belarus. The EU is weary of ineffective policy, and Belarus is weary of inability to resolve actual problems due to the absence of full-scale political relations.

But dialog with the Belarusan regime only brings to nowhere: we all went through it in 2008-2010. First, Europeans are easy to deceive, and the official Minsk is getting use out of it. Secondly, agreeing on the terms of the Belarusan regime, the EU is marginalizing its main allies inside the country: civil society and political opposition. At such pace in 10 years nothing and no one will survive in Belarus.

— Before Linas Linkevičius could leave Minsk, Makei accused the EU of “caveman's' mentality”…

— This phrase referred to the introduction of sanctions by the EU against Russia and a case when a number of Russian artists renowned for their anti-Ukrainian stance were prohibited to enter Latvia.

But the official Minsk has established good relations with Lithuania and Latvia, the countries that lobby depoliticization of relations with the official Minsk and are trying to present their policy as a general EU policy.

— The delegation from the Polish Foreign Ministry is to visit Minsk soon after the visit of the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, and this is becoming a tendency.

— We are to expect pilgrimage of European delegations to Belarus in the near future, and those who have such right will leave for the EU. And these visits are to continue until Belarusan authorities will promise a lot. All this fits in the logic of “small steps”.

After Linkevičius’svisit Europe will be expecting Belarus to release more political prisoners. It is not a direct condition for the dialog and not the direct consequence of Linkevičius’svisit, but with each visit of the EU officials Europe is somewhat suggesting the necessity to release political prisoners.