Apocalyptic parallels caused by the centenary of the World War I and the current intense geopolitical situation might seem apocalyptic only at first glance.

— The centenary of the WWI coincides with the tense period in Europe that has to do with the Russia-Ukraine war and the hostilities in the eastern Ukraine. Indeed, military actions in Donbas and annexation of Crimea have largely influenced all international processes. But let us not be overpowered with magic numbers, — emphasized Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, a philosopher and methodologist in the interview with EuroBelarus Information Service. — One hundred years since the beginning of the WWI and the current escalation is a mere coincidence, as geopolitical and geoeconomic situation in 2014 doesn’t look like the situation a hundred years ago. The start of war was provoked by the shot of Gavrilo Princip, and the future parties to the war were not ready for the war in August 1914. However, they were preparing for it long before 1914. Both Germany and Austria-Hungary had a whole number of unresolved political, economic, territorial problems and aimed at defending the European territorial integrity with arms in their hands. By that time England, the main colonial state of that time, was ready for defending its foreign territories and dominance in Europe. France had been well aware of the fact that it would have to fight with Germany due to a whole number of unresolved interstate problems. Italy that has just made an attempt to enter the bloc of imperialistic states, had also tried to prove its right for the membership in this club with arms in its hands.

Having gone through a shameful defeat in the Russo-Japanese War and through the hardships of the Revolution in 1905-1907, with an obsolete army, with the outdated monarchy, Russia wasn’t really ready for the war, but was also preparing, both from the moral and materialistic perspectives. So 1914 found European countries in a state of at least psychological readiness for the big war. And they were glad to rush into this war, and it is important to remember that almost all societies of the countries-parties to the WWI supported the governments; there was an unusual jingoistic euphoria in the countries of the Triple Entente, the countries of the Triple Alliance, as well as among the small countries, which entered this war.

According to Uladzimir Matskevich, nothing similar happens in 2014.

— For now none of the countries is ready for the full-scale war, none of the countries wants this was, none of the societies, excluding Russian, is in the state of militaristic euphoria and jingoistic excitement. But even the Russian society is not ready for the war! Russia is ready for actions that we saw during the Crimean occupation, is ready to interfere in the Ukraine’s domestic affairs by using diplomacy, terroristic groups, economic pressure and so on; but I don’t think that Putin’s approval rate and jingoism will be the same in case of war. Nobody is ready for the war today. And nobody really wants it.

That is why there is nothing common between the situations in 1914 and in 2014. The other thing is that there is a danger of war, as NATO, European countries, USA, Canada, and Japan are ready to withstand Putin’s insane logics. Russia will face resistance, despite the fact that nobody wants the war. And Putin is aware of it, and that restrains Russia’s actions.

— But in this case Russia should be looking for the ways to get out of the militaristic swamp it is being drawn in...

— The thing is that Russia has now entered the situation that doesn’t have any good solution. As we know, Kremlin has long ago been having plans for dividing Ukraine and destabilizing the political situation in Ukraine in order to weaken its statehood. And these plans were made use of in February 2014. But since the very beginning of Russia’s active actions it became evident that the plans turned out to be strategically impossible, and had to be reviewed quickly: Maidan led Ukraine to the fast-developing political crisis, which Moscow didn’t expect. Moscow didn’t expect such pro-European aspirations of the Ukrainian society and such anti-oligarchy moods, which formed a strong alliance in Maidan protests.

Russian plans or destabilization and separation of Ukraine were not meant to happen in 2013 and the beginning of 2014. Their realization was planned for 2015 and further; that is why the actions were made in haste, which usually doesn’t build up success. Secondly, Russia didn’t expect such resistance on the part of Ukraine, as Russia calculated that Ukraine is a weak state, and Ukrainian society wasn’t taken into consideration at all. But it was civil society that played the key role in these events. Kremlin also was wrong in calculating the reaction of the international community, even though it was preparing for the propaganda and information war. Besides, Russian diplomacy was trying to use the contradictions between the EU and the US, hoping that these two forces won’t be able to coordinate their actions. However, these factors didn’t work — and that is why Kremlin plans turned out to be unfeasible, but there was no time to work out new ones. Thus, Russia’s actions are reactive and rather respond to the actions of Ukraine, the EU and the US; it has lost its initiative and is no longer dictating the rules of the game. Russia is playing to minimize the losses — Russian ruling classes are becoming clear-headed and come to realize that any outcome of Ukrainian situation will be negative for Putin; from now on, his approval rate can only decrease. But at the same time Putin opponents and the West also understand that it is dangerous to put Russian president into the corner, as in this case this extremely difficult situation as it is will get out of any control.