Ukraine is unable to confront Russia’s large-scale aggression. Ukraine doesn’t need meaningless exhortations about peace; it needs guarantees of safety and direct technical and military assistance.

Ukraine is ready to cease fire if OSCE contact group on Ukraine in Minsk adopts peaceful plan of settling conflict in Donbas. Such statement made Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko on September 4 at the NATO Summit.

If the peaceful plan is adopted, Donetsk and Luhansk gunmen are also declaring their readiness to cease fire.

The session of the OSCE contact group took place in Minsk on September 5. However, no particular progress was reached during the last two sessions. And judging from the membership of the contact group, it has no powers to resolve the questions of peace and war.

Is Poroshenko hoping that he will reach peace during the meetings in Minsk? Why it was NATO Summit that his peaceful initiative was voiced at? What is the aim of Putin’s “peaceful plan”?

These questions in the talk with the EuroBelarus Information Service covered Andrei Yahorau, Director of Centre for European Transformation.

— Poroshenko is hoping that the OSCE contact group on Ukraine in Minsk adopts peaceful plan of settling conflict in Donbas. Why is he cherishing these hopes? Because peaceful plan could have been adopted at the former meeting on September 1, as well as at the first meeting. What has changed during this time?

— A lot of things changed: Russian army entered the Ukrainian territory, the West acknowledged the fact of the Russian aggression, a new level of sanctions against Russia is being introduced, NATO Summit takes place. With all this, Poroshenko needs to catch the diplomatic initiative and step forth as an initiator of peace, as this is the first thing that the leaders of the countries-members of NATO will call for.

However, Ukraine doesn’t need meaningless exhortations about peace; it needs guarantees of safety and direct technical and military assistance. And that is why this forestalling step has been made: “We are ready for peace, we have already stated that, what’s next?”

The statement of the Ukraine President was made after the statements of the diplomatic missions and after the phone conversation between Putin and Poroshenko was made public. During that conversation they agreed on the ceasefire. Russia had to support peace, but was unable to do so, as it is not a party to the conflict. Right after that it suggested its peaceful plan, basically admitting its participation… It means that Poroshenko won over Putin in a diplomatic game on the threshold of the NATO Summit.

— With the start of the session of contact group Ukraine President is ready to declare about the bilateral ceasefire. Why were the peaceful initiatives voiced at the Summit in Wales?

— Because it is at the Summit that the future of the conflict is determined, and everyone is aware of that. All steps are made with the expectation of influencing the decisions st the NATO Summit.

— In Wales Poroshenko enlisted the support of the leading countries in the world, NATO expressed its willingness to provide military and technical assistance to Ukraine, which is more than useful now. However, Poroshenko’s statements don’t sound very logical: if you get assistance, you still should complete what you have begun…

— Ukraine is unable to confront Russia’s large-scale aggression. Ukrainian army is retreating, fighting, but gradually losing its positions. NATO support means a lot, but time is needed to rearm the army. And even if it happens Ukraine is able to suppress separatists, but it hardly can hold out against Russian regular army. The conflict won’t resolve without political plan.

— On September 3 Putin gave publicity to a “peaceful plan”, which puts in claims to the Ukrainian army though almost doesn’t touch upon the gunmen. How can you assess this plan?

— Putin is lost; he is lost in lies. He pretends that Russia has nothing to do with it. He urges Ukraine to surrender, but Ukrainians won’t do that.