Ukrainian events mould public opinion of Belarusan citizens on wide rage of social and political life. However, Belarusans choose to remain infantile.

According to the data of the social poll organized by the Belarusan Analytical Workshop center (BAW, Warsaw) in September, our fellow citizens don’t believe that Russia might implement in Belarus the scenario similar to that in Ukraine.

Tatiana Vadalazhskaya, a senior analyst of the Center for European Transformation, candidate of sociological sciences, answers the questions of the EuroBelarus Information Service.

— Sociologists came to the conclusion that Ukrainian events mould public opinion of Belarusan citizens on wide rage of issues, not only mould their attitude towards the events in the neighboring country. Did Belarusans start paying less attention to what is happening in their own country?

— Despite the fact that developments related to the Ukrainian conflict happen outside our country, it is very close to Belarus. It is not Africa, America, and not even Europe. Ukraine is close to us not only geographically. A lot of people are involved into multilateral and bilateral relations with Ukraine, including kindred relationship. One way or another, many Belarusans believe that these events are happening if not at the land of one country, than at the land very close to our country.

I find it absolutely clear that Ukrainian events have been and will be influencing the Belarusan situation in the future.

It is also clear that this event is very outstanding and tense, whereas inside Belarus things are quite tranquil and calm. One can hardly name any bright political or social events or phenomena in Belarus that would be comparable to the war in the neighboring country.

Besides, Russia media form a considerable part of the Belarusan information area. Now Ukrainian conflict is occupying a considerable place in the Russia mass media, and earlier it were exclusively Ukrainian events that Russia was discussing, and doing so in a very emotional and accusative way. It would be weird if it didn’t make any influence to the moods and views of Belarusans.

— A year ago hardly anyone was doubtful as to which country is more brotherly – Russia or Ukraine. Now most Belarusans support Crimea’s annexation to Russia, not vice versa.

— It seems to me that the ideas Belarusans had about Russia or Ukraine didn’t change. Apart from strong influence of the Russian media, there are also certain colonial or imperial ideas regarding Russia’s relations with other countries in the public conscience, where Russia is seen as a “big brother” that has power and will, as a united big country – the Russian Empire, Soviet Union, with Moscow at the central position.

— Sociologists mark certain disillusioning among Belarusans: the number of those who flatly support Russia is decreasing. Why is it so?

— I believe that this fluctuation is of a more temporal character: the influence of propaganda has decreased, while the information about Russian army in Ukraine is becoming more open. All that influences public conscience.

However, I don’t think we can talk about “disillusioning” here, as these fluctuations are easily removed by some extra portion of propaganda.

— According to the data provided by the social poll organized by the Belarusan Analytical Workshop center Belarusans are infantile. Why Belarusan citizens don’t think that Russia might implement in Belarus the scenario similar to that in Ukraine?

— It was long time ago when sociologists noted that Belarusans accepted the fact of their independence and now identify themselves with Belarus. Now the depth of this feeling is being tested. We don’t know what will really happen if Russia decides to repeat Ukrainian scenario in Belarus.

But if we take the results of the sociological data as the basis, we still lack the depth of civic and national identity.

— With the conflict that Russia is taking part in, why did Belarusans start be more suspicious in relation to the EU?

— It also has to do with the ways to interpret the conflict, which often are pictured as the conflict between Russia and the US, Russia and the West rather that Ukraine-Russia conflict. Or people think that the tragic situation in Ukraine has to do with the desire of Ukrainians to enter the EU.

Belarusans don’t have fear towards Europe itself; they are rather afraid of the price they might pay for the European choice. When people made their European choice based on the pragmatic goals, the desire to aim for it disappears as soon as they take a look at the war in Ukraine.

— Is the entrance to the Eurasian Economic Union (the Treaty on the EEU is to become operational on 1 January 2015) to impact the geopolitical preferences of Belarusans a lot?

— For now all movements related to geopolitical agreements we have with Russia are of very weak influence at the life and conscience of Belarusans. I don’t think that the very fact of EEU’s formation will reflect on the life and public conscience of citizens, unless they touch upon people’s personal lives.