When the top-ranking official summons the editors of the major independent media and demands to abstain from spreading panic, the question is who is really spreading panic?

Panic of the Russian society through Russian media has automatically spread to Belarus. Belarusan government together with the National Bank introduced a 30% levy on purchasing foreign currency, which generated public excitement.

The authorities close and block major independent media, making them work in the regime of the martial law. Lukashenko harshly attacks Russia and goes on a visit to Ukraine.

EuroBelarus Information Service together with Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, tried to clarify what is really happening in Belarus.

— Immediately after Russia the crisis overtook Belarus: the authorities introduced a 30% levy on purchasing foreign currency, and the population became one third poorer at once. The experts forecast total devaluation in the near future. Why did Belarus find itself on the verge of the repeat of April 2001 events?

— A longstanding unsolved problem of Belarusan economy tied to the Russian market finally went off, though experts have long ago warned about the possible consequences. When Russia that is stuck in a hybrid war with Ukraine dived into economic crisis, Belarus, being tied to the Russian market, didn’t manage to stay aside and found itself in a wake of Russian economic crisis, threating to the national security.

I’d like to disagree that a 30% levy to purchasing foreign currency leads to impoverishment of the population, as it only affects a certain part of population and Belarusan exporters. Far-seeing citizens and entrepreneurs have schemes that’ll help to avoid problems.

The other thing is that Russian moods induced panic: Belarus is tied to Russia not only economically but also in terms of information, which means that hysterical reaction of Russian society reached Belarus through Russian media.

However, under the disguise of economic hardships trade wars and redistribution of domestic market has started in Belarus: a number of shops are closed, Onliber.by is closed, too, although this website neither was politicized nor spread panic.

— How will the economic problems affect the public conscience of Belarusans on the threshold of the presidential campaign 2015? Will Belarusans tighten their belts and swallow yet another humiliation?

— Nothing indicates that certain political force could use the situation to destabilize the regime. These measures don’t affect most part of the population: people don’t get salaries in dollars and don’t participate in foreign currency speculations.

It seems that the situation was created to test how population and business are able to react to extraordinary measures. And the authorities got quite full information: confident entrepreneurs and owners of webpages forecasted their future, so they changed domains and work with the help of anonymizers; entrepreneurs and enterprises that are involved with export have reserve schemes of how to avoid problems.

The webpage prokopovi.ch promptly resumed its work, demonstrating that private persons are not going to render tribute to the regime.

Simultaneously with that dollar rate increased, and of course, black market will be oriented on its upper indicator.

Serious devaluation leap happened, and it is not the end yet. For a long time the ruble rate was kept artificially and it crashed at the first occasion. However, the experts forecast further increase in dollar rate.

The collapse of the Belarusan ruble caused chain reaction: the authorities blocked all independent webpages in the country using good intentions as a cover. But the caused effect was quite the opposite, and foreign currency panic followed: if the authorities are blocking the independent media something must be wrong... Belarus basically found itself in the regime of the martial law: during the martial law all media should work for the country not against it, the Information Minister announced.

None of the webpages spread panic. Many people discuss the need of devaluation, but without panic; they only wondered why the authorities were postposing this process. And suddenly one of the top-ranking officials summons the editors of the major independent media and announces the “martial law”. So the question is: who is really spreading panic?

It means that the monitoring of the situation was caused by absolutely different reasons. Being confident about the results of the president campaign, the regime is testing the situation in order to find out whether there is any danger from business, media, and population. Actions of Belarusan authorities is a fight exploring, not reaction to devaluation.

— Independent media were the first to accept the blow. However, as the physical laws say, the chain reaction is spread immediately. What or who is to accept the next blow?

—The half-dead political opposition and weak civil society can hardly be viewed as dangerous opponents by the regime. The authorities are concerned with the mood of business, which doesn’t fall under the control of the regime; with the reaction of mass media, and in the last turn — with the reaction of population.

The regime is artificially aggravating the situation and spreads panic through Lukashenko’s statements regarding Russia. These statements might indicate a war-like situation with Russia and overtures with the West, though it is clear that with colossal economic hardships and the ongoing Ukrainian war Russia won’t be able to start a new war. That means that the only aim of Lukashenko’s statements is to raise tensions in the society, by this monitoring the public opinion re possible reactions to the difficult year that is awaiting us.

— Current events should be considered as general repetition of 2015 campaign. Are we to expect crackdown at all fronts?

— I wouldn’t think of it as of the general repetition of 2015 president campaign; public conscience and capacity of those who might respond are measured.

— How does Lukashenko’s visit to Ukraine fit in the panic atmosphere?

— Lukashenko’s visit has its independent significance, even though his visit has to do with the panic that seized the society.

Now Ukraine stated that it is ready to help Belarus in mending relations with the EU within the frames of the Eastern Partnership. We shouldn’t condemn Kyiv for its position: Ukraine is in such situation that establishment of neighborly relations with all the neighbors is its only alternative. Ukraine needs friends, whatever friends it has. Whether we like Lukashenko’s visit to Ukraine or not, we should understand that Ukraine’s successful development is among our national interests, too. And that presupposes establishment of normal relations with the Belarusan regime. At the international level Belarus is represented by Lukashenko’s regime; that is why neighborly relations with Belarus automatically include relations with the regime.