Belarus head long ago realized the advantages of independence; he doesn’t want to be Kremlin’s deputy. That is why we observe Lukashenko’s alleged switch to Belarusanism. And that is a forced switch.

The vanguard of the “Russian World” embodied by specific websites and so-called information agencies such as Imperia and Regnum made a solidarity attack: there appeared new materials with different level of harshness re new Belarusization from “above” and switch to almost-repressions re Russian speakers. Recently, during a seven-hour press conference, Alexander Lukashenko was talking about the orders given to the intelligence services to control the carriers of the “Russian World ideas that they are pushing here”. Let us note that there have always been some editions that stand for Slavic integration and indissoluble fraternal life with Russia. However, new terms make them uncomfortable and make them think about using authorities for the good.

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, marks that the differences between these groups “are quite substantial”.

“Statists play in favor of Lukashenko, they are only worried about strengthening statehood, while their loyalty to Russia depends on the political regime,” Uladzimir Matskevich explains in the interview with the EuroBelarus Information Service. “I.e. before the Russia-Ukraine war, when the EAEU and Customs Union were being created, they stood for integration. Now they are voicing their concerns about the possible information war of Russia against Belarus. And that is where statist aim of “Cytadel” group and aim of “Imperia”, the so-called information and analytics centre, differ. When the question about integration initiatives is raised, they unite; but when it comes to sovereignty or imperialism they face obvious differences. And these differences are directly related to Lukashenko’s wavering. Of course, we shouldn’t expect these obsequious intellectuals to be independent.”

As Uladzimir Matskevich notes with irony, this is “serious work that requires mental effort; however, it cannot be regarded as an independent analytical or prognostic work.”

“This is the desire to predict desires of the mighty of this world, be up to their standard, and provide them with all sort of ideological opinions, propagandistic materials or explanations of these or that actions of political forces.”

According to Uladzimir Matskevich, “the danger of Russian imperialism is now really realized by the leaders of the regime, and advantages of independence, sovereignty have been realized by these people long time ago.”

“That is why they will hardly choose control over independent, even though small and not very rich country over the status of provincial leaders in the big empire. All the more that they understand that their situation in the imperial province will depend on the kindly feelings and will of the imperial management, in which case their situation will be very wavering and dependent on Kremlin’s decisions. For some time they could stay in the role of henchmen, but only till Kremlin’s monarch allows them to do so. Of course, it cannot appeal to the Belarusan ruler and his retinue. And that is where their current double-nature politics results from: on the one hand, they don’t want to argue with Moscow; on the other, they have to take measures so that Russia doesn’t swallow up Belarus.”

Uladzimir Matskevich is sure that “Kremlin certainly has plans” to swallow up Belarus.

“However, while Lukashenko, who is quite convenient for Kremlin, is in power, these plans will hardly be realized. Of course, unless Lukashenko demonstrates obstinacy. But still, demonstration of obstinacy or loyalty from Lukashenko doesn’t guarantee that he will keep his post. It is in Kremlin where everything is decided. That is why Lukashenko worries that Russia might provoke some instability and disorder in Belarus, related to violation of the rights of Russians or economic collapse. It doesn’t matter what will be the starting point for disorders; what is important is that Russia won’t wait to offer its “help” in resolving the situation, and that will immediately lead to intercept of power by means of introducing army or economic pressure. Lukashenko understands that and is trying to secure himself against the possible disorders, whatever side they originate from.”

It is the desire to keep power and relative independence by all means that as Matskevich believes, explains, “those things that hardly combine with the ideas of those people who take Lukashenko’s statements about changes in the politics seriously, who think that he has become an anti-Russian leader and that is why he should turn towards opposition or at least give it some relief.”

“Nothing of that will happen. As both the opposition inside the country as well as provocateurs, who are working on imperial Kremlin now pose equal threat to Lukashenko. Besides, regardless of the source of possible disorders — whether it is pro-Western forces, strikes or pro-Russian provocateurs – the result of these disorders will be the same, leading to Moscow’s intervention. That is why Lukashenko’s actions are quite logical. He understands that if he keeps cultivating pro-Russian moods, he will stay defenseless under Russia’s pressure. And only patriotic feelings are able to induce Belarusans to oppose this pressure. That is why on the one hand, the ruler has to cultivate these feelings, but at the same time, he is very afraid of them. This appeal to Belarusanism is a forced and insincere switch.”