The opposition has more chances to influence the orbit of Pluto than the situation in Belarus: it is fully controlled by the regime, with the illusion that “it still has its own opinion”.

The long-awaited release of the political prisoners caused euphoria in the democratic environment. A hope appeared that the presence of Mikala Statkevich would enable the consolidation of what has remained from the opposition and, as a result, influence the course of the presidential campaign.

How has the release of the political prisoners influenced the opposition? Is Mikala Statkevich able to unite the opposition? Will Lukashenko’s opponents be able to influence the course of the presidential campaign?

Uladzimir Matskevich, the head of the Board of the International Consortium “EuroBelarus”, answered the questions of the EuroBelarus Information Service.

— What stands behind the release of Mikala Statkevich and other political prisoners? The release of political prisoners, who were held hostage for five years, hardly happened by chance right in the middle of the presidential campaign.

— Of course, not. There can be no coincidences in a well-thought campaign. I think I don’t need to prove that the regime is preparing every campaign really well.

Political prisoners are released from prisons and penal colonies, but they don’t stop being hostages; they all are put on probation from two to five years. Each of them has a sword of Damocles over their head, and any incautious move can put them back behind bars. Thus, they are under control. It only seems that people like Yury Rubtsou cannot be controlled and that they always do what they’ve decided themselves. Yes, they decide themselves, but they are so predictable in their decisions! So let’s ask ourselves: “What behaviour do the authorities expect from those who they’ve released from prison?” And let’s consider all possible variants, with the most dangerous and most unpleasant coming first. If the authorities are preparing repressions and intimidation first, then some of the “wild” should be at large that wouldn’t stand anything and would protest and seek truth. Someone should be the leader; for example, Statkevich or Rubtsou. In that case the authorities will have the reason for using force, as well as an excuse for having kept these people in prisons for years — they are “wild”, they are troublemakers; what complaints can there be? Such people are put into prison even with the most democratic regimes. There can be even worse scenarios.

— As one of the politicians said, the release of Statkevich caused certain drive among the democratic part of the society. Were the hopes put on Mikala Statkevich justified?

— Why such hurrying? What hopes can justify he who has spent five years behind bars and is only free for a week? He is not a shaman or a wonder-worker; although the level of our political culture is so that a part of our society really expects miracles.

Unjustified hopes are a problem of those, who cherishes these hopes, not those, who cannot justify them. We have a lot of dreamers with their heads in the clouds. They expected miracles from Kazulin, Sannikau, and Bialiatski; now they are expecting them from Statkevich. It is silly — just think, listen, perceive. Uladzimir Niaklaeu has told that he cannot do anything alone against the intelligent services; what’s unclear about that? Let’s better think why Tatiana Karatkevich’s absolutely transparent puppet nature didn’t become obvious to everyone who collected signatures for her and who is going to vote for her! Why isn’t it clear that every voice for Karatkevich is a voice for Lukashenko! Why does the society isn’t trying to understand Statkevich, but perceives his words as some program or strategy? What Statkevich is now saying is that he is not afraid of anything and that he is always ready! That’s it!

What is he ready for? Ask him, and you’ll get an answer. There is no strategy and no productive procedures in the opposition and civil society. It is called Zugzwang in chess — when any move is bad. But in chess you have to make moves, whereas in politics you don’t. If everything that you can do is bad, don’t do it! Think — now it’s time to think! We also had to think in 2010, when the regime ruled the opposition like a thoughtless crowd, where we had both heroes and traitors, brave spirits and cowards, but still an easily manipulated and thoughtless crowd. It seems that after 5 years in prison Statkevich has thought about many things and now understands that in politics one shouldn’t fuss and act thoughtlessly. He understands; but the society expects actions, not words from him. That makes Statkevich do at least something and make some statements, all that in the Zugzwang regime. So these will be those, who thoughtlessly call Statkevich to do at least something, who will be responsible in his short fame and following neglect. Any participation in this clownish campaign helps Lukashenko; even Square in September-October will be of use to him.

— During his “week of fame” Statkevich and the part of opposition that supports him announced a new plan paraphrased by Yury Drakahrust: neglect of the official campaign, announcement of new elections — to reach this goal new Square is possible. How realistic is this plan?

— It’s not a plan. Well, I’ve already said that. Don’t expect a plan from a man who has spent 5 years in prison, if even those who were conventionally free were unable to create it. And don’t mistake his arguments for a plan; otherwise you’ll only see nonsense in it. There is no need of a plan when we are talking about neglect — you simply don’t take part in swindle. Whereas if we talk about boycott, plan is needed; and no one has it. Let’s not lie to ourselves and not distort the words of those whom we still can hear in the public space.

— Plans can be plans, but the opposition is divided into two camps: those, who support Statkevich and those, who favor Karatkevich (their number is decreasing). These two camps are in the state of war. What is happening in the Belarusan opposition now, which role will it have to play in the current presidential campaign?

— What is happening now is a grand swindle — everything is absolutely false. The opposition is fully controlled by the regime, with the illusion that “it still has its own opinion”. It might as well be true; however, they do what Lukashenko and Jarmoshyna want them to do. All that fits in the “political techniques of the third generation” — a system of grand delusion on a national scale. Recently I’ve made a series of reports about these political technologies. They cannot affect the moods of the deceived public in any way; but those, who want to gain a real understanding of the situation, can reflect upon it with me.

— No one has any doubts about another Alexander Lukashenko’s “elegant victory”, while the chances that the world community will recognize the “elections” are very high. If the authorities manage to organize two tours of the elections, for example, Lukashenko vs. Karatkevich, then the question about non-legitimacy of the elections is resolved automatically. Does the opposition have power and resources in order to interfere in the legitimation of the Belarusan regime?

— No comments! My fantasy doesn’t expand to the second tour. The opposition has more chances to influence the orbit of Pluto than the situation in Belarus. To do that, one needs brains.